Monday, September 26, 2011

BTFD

Bought the dip in Yamana (AUY) @ $14, 500 shares.
Bought AK Steel (AKS) @ $7, 500 shares.




Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Selling Kraft & Bristol-Myers

Selling my Bristol Myers (BMY) @ $29.50 for a 24% total return.
Selling my Kraft (KFT) @ $34 for a 23% total return.

Sunday, September 11, 2011

SNB goes nuclear

This past week's SNB intervention into the currency markets is unprecedented on many levels. The intervention saw the franc pegged to the euro @ 1.2, nearly 10% from its prior price.
For one, it may be the single greatest one day devaluation since FDR devalued the dollar against Gold by almost 70% ($20.67 to $35) with the Gold Reserve Act of 1934. And for another, it most certainly is another salvo in the ongoing currency wars.

It also likely blew up every leveraged retail currency player on the planet that was long SNB. Of course, this was the SNB's purpose -- to discourage speculative money flowing into CHF. But in fact the move into CHF was caused not really by speculators, but by real capital flight from the Euro Zone to the perceived safety of the Swiss.

Pegging the CHF to the EUR certainly will cause speculators to "move on" to other currencies (probably the Yen) but in reality the mass amounts of money flowing from EUR banks to CHF banks will have to be equalized by the SNB, and so instead of the balance of accounts being equalized by the exchange rate, it now will be equalized by the SNB's purchases of EUR assets.

The SNB is ultra conservative (usually) and this will limit them to only the most credit-worthy debt. I suspect the SNB was in the market Friday buying Bunds because of this, driving down German 10-year bunds to a record low 1.77%. This may have other interesting effects on Bund-peripheral spreads, actually artificially widening them because bunds are falling so much (although the peripheral yield expansion obviously is a larger driver).

I expect more pegs to emerge. In fact, a global repegging may now commence -- which is nothing more than unsterilized money printing, and should be long term anyway, nothing more than super bullish for gold.