Bought Pepco 6/1/2017 6.125% Bond at 106.131
Missed the WM sale @ 32.50 in yesterday's post for a 11% profit.
Thursday, March 4, 2010
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
Closing "Other Picks"
I'll put my money where my mouth is. But wow, these picks did great:
Other Picks
• Bought AA @ $10.48 [11-26-08]
o Closed AA @ 13.34 [3-3-10]
o $2.86 profit/share; 27.3% ROI
• Bought DBA @ $24.80 [11-26-08]
o Closed DBA @ 25.11 [3-3-10]
o $0.31 profit/share; 1.2% ROI
• Bought KO @ $45.90 [1-6-09]
o Sold KO @ 53.9 [3-3-10]
o $8 profit/share; 17.4% ROI
• MSFT @ $20.49 [11-26-08]
o Sold MSFT @ 28.46 [3-3-10]
o $7.97 profit/share; 38.9% ROI
• PFE @ $16.07 [11-26-08]
o Sold PFE @ 17.32 [3-3-10]
o $1.25 profit/share; 7.8% ROI
• VLO @ $23.24 [1-4-09]
o Sold VLO @ 18.63 [3-3-10]
o $4.61 LOSS/share; 19.8% LOSS
• YHOO @ $10.58 [11-26-08]
o Sold YHOO @ 15.57 [3-3-10]
o $4.99 profit/share; 47.2% ROI
17.14% Average ROI
Other Picks
• Bought AA @ $10.48 [11-26-08]
o Closed AA @ 13.34 [3-3-10]
o $2.86 profit/share; 27.3% ROI
• Bought DBA @ $24.80 [11-26-08]
o Closed DBA @ 25.11 [3-3-10]
o $0.31 profit/share; 1.2% ROI
• Bought KO @ $45.90 [1-6-09]
o Sold KO @ 53.9 [3-3-10]
o $8 profit/share; 17.4% ROI
• MSFT @ $20.49 [11-26-08]
o Sold MSFT @ 28.46 [3-3-10]
o $7.97 profit/share; 38.9% ROI
• PFE @ $16.07 [11-26-08]
o Sold PFE @ 17.32 [3-3-10]
o $1.25 profit/share; 7.8% ROI
• VLO @ $23.24 [1-4-09]
o Sold VLO @ 18.63 [3-3-10]
o $4.61 LOSS/share; 19.8% LOSS
• YHOO @ $10.58 [11-26-08]
o Sold YHOO @ 15.57 [3-3-10]
o $4.99 profit/share; 47.2% ROI
17.14% Average ROI
Lots of Position Changes
Sorry for my tardiness. It's been months since I updated my position list.
Stock Activity
Bought MOT @ 6.58
Sold LINE @ 22.50 – 40% profit including dividends
Bought GDXJ @ 28
Bought GDXJ @ 27
Bought RST @ 20
Bought SDS @ 40.98
Bought ATVI @ 11.30
Bought INTC @ 20.84
Sold WMT @ 52.50 – 7% profit
Bought KFT @ 26.70
Bought AUY @ 10.1
Bought BP @ 56.7
Bought HSY @ 36
Bought WM @ 33.16
Option Activity
Wrote June 2010 KFT 27-30 Strangle
Wrote June 2010 VZ 26-31 Strangle
Wrote June 2010 WMT 50 Put
Wrote Jan 2011 KO 42.5 Put
Wrote Jun 2010 MCD 60 Puts
Wrote May 2010 GDXJ 31 Call
Wrote June 2010 RST 25 Calls
Wrote June 2010 SDS 41 Call
Wrote April 2010 AUY 11 Puts
Wrote Jun 2010 BRK.B 65 Put
Wrote May 2010 HSY 36 Put
Bond Activity
Bought Viacom 5.625% 2012
Bought Joy Global 6% 2016
Bought Fortune Brands 6.375% 2014
Stock Activity
Bought MOT @ 6.58
Sold LINE @ 22.50 – 40% profit including dividends
Bought GDXJ @ 28
Bought GDXJ @ 27
Bought RST @ 20
Bought SDS @ 40.98
Bought ATVI @ 11.30
Bought INTC @ 20.84
Sold WMT @ 52.50 – 7% profit
Bought KFT @ 26.70
Bought AUY @ 10.1
Bought BP @ 56.7
Bought HSY @ 36
Bought WM @ 33.16
Option Activity
Wrote June 2010 KFT 27-30 Strangle
Wrote June 2010 VZ 26-31 Strangle
Wrote June 2010 WMT 50 Put
Wrote Jan 2011 KO 42.5 Put
Wrote Jun 2010 MCD 60 Puts
Wrote May 2010 GDXJ 31 Call
Wrote June 2010 RST 25 Calls
Wrote June 2010 SDS 41 Call
Wrote April 2010 AUY 11 Puts
Wrote Jun 2010 BRK.B 65 Put
Wrote May 2010 HSY 36 Put
Bond Activity
Bought Viacom 5.625% 2012
Bought Joy Global 6% 2016
Bought Fortune Brands 6.375% 2014
Sunday, February 7, 2010
I know of a fund manager (named Mr. Gold)
This guy has beaten the market 10 of the last 12 years. $10,000 put into his fund in 1999 (Dec 31st) would have turned into over $37,000 while $10,000 into the S&P in 1999 would have turned into $9,000.
In 2008 when the S&P lost 37% of its value this fund manager was prudent and made sure that his fund still returned 3.5% for the year.
Obviously I am talking about the commodity of Gold and not a mutual fund but the point I am making here is if I WAS talking about a mutual fund all the performance chasing sheep out there would be begging me to tell them how they could give this fund manager their money.
But tell the person that this is gold and all of the sudden their eyes glaze over. In their zombie like state they utter something like “Isn’t gold risky” or “I heard gold is a big bubble”. I actually was telling someone about gold 3-4 years ago at a cookout and they vehemently argued with me that it was illegal to own gold and they did not believe I owned any.
A big deal is being made about all the commercials on talk radio and CNBC/Fox News for buying gold. I admit that this bothered me as well which is why my last call on gold when we were trading above $1100 in November 2009 was “Gold: long term hold, short term reduce”
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=287772&t=01001808419327792238
But the reason I made this call was I believed the dollar index was going to rally from 75.
I said:
“The problem is the dollar index hit 75, rallied to 76.5 and now is headed to right above 75 in my opinion to make a short term higher low. The insane downside momentum has abated even with today’s 1% decline. When momentum slows the moving averages flatten out and that is how you get rallies… even in something as fundamentally worthless as the US dollar.”
Well flash forward 3 months and now the dollar index is above 80 and gold has gotten taken down over 12% off its highs. Most of the gold mining stocks have lost 30% or more off their highs. If you noticed in CAPS over the last week I was closing all my hugely profitable gold and silver miner shorts.
Is the correction over in gold and gold related stocks?? I don’t think it is yet. I still think gold is going to correct back to 3 digits to scare all the late gold buyers.
But what is funny to me is that will NOT change that gold is in a BULL MARKET.
This will also not change the fact that gold will continue to beat the S&P for quite some time to come….
The reason gold is not a bubble is the common person still HATES gold and thinks it’s a huge bubble. Sure some investment gurus are huge gold bugs and so are some vocal folks on TV but as someone who has lived through quite a few bubbles in his life knows its not until the COMMON person gets involved with an item that it becomes a bubble. Do you remember the tech bubble? Every person at my gym and every one of my friends was talking about their next tech stock and how the “New Economy” had changed stock valuation forever. Do you remember the real estate bubble? Home prices can never fall! They are not making any more land! Real estate is the path to wealth! I just got back from this Carleton Sheets seminar!! Your mailman was saying that and so were your mom and brother. Ask those same people now what they think about gold and they will tell you it is a big, risky, scary bubble.
This is why in my opinion although gold could have more short-term downside it will CONTINUE to crush the S&P for years to come.
End RANT!
In 2008 when the S&P lost 37% of its value this fund manager was prudent and made sure that his fund still returned 3.5% for the year.
Obviously I am talking about the commodity of Gold and not a mutual fund but the point I am making here is if I WAS talking about a mutual fund all the performance chasing sheep out there would be begging me to tell them how they could give this fund manager their money.
But tell the person that this is gold and all of the sudden their eyes glaze over. In their zombie like state they utter something like “Isn’t gold risky” or “I heard gold is a big bubble”. I actually was telling someone about gold 3-4 years ago at a cookout and they vehemently argued with me that it was illegal to own gold and they did not believe I owned any.
A big deal is being made about all the commercials on talk radio and CNBC/Fox News for buying gold. I admit that this bothered me as well which is why my last call on gold when we were trading above $1100 in November 2009 was “Gold: long term hold, short term reduce”
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=287772&t=01001808419327792238
But the reason I made this call was I believed the dollar index was going to rally from 75.
I said:
“The problem is the dollar index hit 75, rallied to 76.5 and now is headed to right above 75 in my opinion to make a short term higher low. The insane downside momentum has abated even with today’s 1% decline. When momentum slows the moving averages flatten out and that is how you get rallies… even in something as fundamentally worthless as the US dollar.”
Well flash forward 3 months and now the dollar index is above 80 and gold has gotten taken down over 12% off its highs. Most of the gold mining stocks have lost 30% or more off their highs. If you noticed in CAPS over the last week I was closing all my hugely profitable gold and silver miner shorts.
Is the correction over in gold and gold related stocks?? I don’t think it is yet. I still think gold is going to correct back to 3 digits to scare all the late gold buyers.
But what is funny to me is that will NOT change that gold is in a BULL MARKET.
This will also not change the fact that gold will continue to beat the S&P for quite some time to come….
The reason gold is not a bubble is the common person still HATES gold and thinks it’s a huge bubble. Sure some investment gurus are huge gold bugs and so are some vocal folks on TV but as someone who has lived through quite a few bubbles in his life knows its not until the COMMON person gets involved with an item that it becomes a bubble. Do you remember the tech bubble? Every person at my gym and every one of my friends was talking about their next tech stock and how the “New Economy” had changed stock valuation forever. Do you remember the real estate bubble? Home prices can never fall! They are not making any more land! Real estate is the path to wealth! I just got back from this Carleton Sheets seminar!! Your mailman was saying that and so were your mom and brother. Ask those same people now what they think about gold and they will tell you it is a big, risky, scary bubble.
This is why in my opinion although gold could have more short-term downside it will CONTINUE to crush the S&P for years to come.
End RANT!
Sunday, January 31, 2010
Financial Advisors… They only know ONE word!
That word is “BUY”.
So I am in my car a lot and I usually keep an AM talk radio station on.
On the weekends there are a few “Investment Advisors” that have weekly shows. For years I have listened to their advice more for personal entertainment purposes.
I listened through all of 2007 and 2008 when every weekend they said: “Now is the time to buy this dip in the stock market”. Every weekend without fail it was the same thing.
I hadn’t heard any of their shows for a while but in December 2009 when the Dow was above 10,500 and the S&P was above 1100 I was curious if they had maybe FINALLY turned cautious on the market. I mean the market had rallied about 70% from the levels in March and valuations on stocks were higher than pretty much any point in history aside from the Tech bubble in 2000.
I turned on the radio and I heard this:
http://www.fileden.com/files/2010/1/31/2745273/BUYBUYTheMutualFundShow_12-05-09.mp3
I learned from this that it does not matter WHAT the market does, these “Financial Advisors” will always say the same thing. BUY, BUY, BUY!
It reminds me of an old adage, never ask a barber if you need a haircut.
So I am in my car a lot and I usually keep an AM talk radio station on.
On the weekends there are a few “Investment Advisors” that have weekly shows. For years I have listened to their advice more for personal entertainment purposes.
I listened through all of 2007 and 2008 when every weekend they said: “Now is the time to buy this dip in the stock market”. Every weekend without fail it was the same thing.
I hadn’t heard any of their shows for a while but in December 2009 when the Dow was above 10,500 and the S&P was above 1100 I was curious if they had maybe FINALLY turned cautious on the market. I mean the market had rallied about 70% from the levels in March and valuations on stocks were higher than pretty much any point in history aside from the Tech bubble in 2000.
I turned on the radio and I heard this:
http://www.fileden.com/files/2010/1/31/2745273/BUYBUYTheMutualFundShow_12-05-09.mp3
I learned from this that it does not matter WHAT the market does, these “Financial Advisors” will always say the same thing. BUY, BUY, BUY!
It reminds me of an old adage, never ask a barber if you need a haircut.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
2010 will be what 2009 should've been
Thus I'm lightening up on my positions. MCD & JNJ sold for 6 and 10% profits. KO sold for a 12% profit. Averaging down on HSY.
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