Sold my entire ultrashort treasury position (tbt, cost basis $34) for $38, a 12% gain. Will rebuy in the $36s once the front end of the curve flattens a bit, and may write some puts there.
- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone
Monday, November 15, 2010
Friday, November 12, 2010
Taking a shot short
Bought 300 UltraShort S&P (SDS) @ $26.05 yesterday. Stop @ $25.
Will get more short if 1195 is breached.
Will get more short if 1195 is breached.
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Took profits across all gold miners
Sold 1000 AUY @ $12 (2000 left, 13% profit on the 10 lots sold)
Sold 200 GDXJ @ $41 (100 left, 46% profit on the 2 lots sold)
Sold 200 GG @ $48 (out of this position, 9% gain from a cost basis of $44)
Sold 200 GDXJ @ $41 (100 left, 46% profit on the 2 lots sold)
Sold 200 GG @ $48 (out of this position, 9% gain from a cost basis of $44)
Silver -- at least a ST top in
The Silver ETF has traded over 8x its normal volume while making a new lifetime high.
$SILVER traded to a new 30 year high (just the Hunt brothers got a worse price) over $29.
I believe at least the short term top is in on Silver; I would be shocked if at least it didn't correct 10% from here additionally.
$GOLD may get dragged down with it as well for a short time.
$SILVER traded to a new 30 year high (just the Hunt brothers got a worse price) over $29.
I believe at least the short term top is in on Silver; I would be shocked if at least it didn't correct 10% from here additionally.
$GOLD may get dragged down with it as well for a short time.
Saturday, October 30, 2010
S&P Topping Patterns on Weekly & Daily Charts
Despite the impending annoucement of QE2, there are quite a few technical market hurdles before we can usher in a new monetary era of fiat devaluation-based prosperity.
Taking a look at the weekly chart, you'll notice that we are bumping up against the 200 day Moving Average which proved to be resistance back in April, and we quickly went lower.
The S&P daily chart is showing several dogi's in a row, indicating that trading ranges have been tight and the market has no real direction, even though it has been trending up.
Finally, take a look at the chart of the dollar. I've indicated the trendline cap at 89 and the ascending trendline floor right around 76.3. Despite QE2, the dollar could be poised to bounce off this trendline.
While this is S&P 500 negative, I do not believe that over the intermediate term it is Gold negative. Gold is only correlated to the dollar slightly less than 0.5, meaning that it moves with the dollar only 50% of the time. This year's earlier move in Gold and the dollar simultaneously during the Euro-blowup in May demonstrated that.
As the demand for real money continues to accelerate, Gold will be less and less affected by the $USD. Gold and the dollar can go up together, and likely will, until such a time as the dollar "breaks".
One could make a strong case here for short ES ($SPX), long GC ($GOLD); personally though I am not repositioning myself until after the Fed meeting and elections.
Taking a look at the weekly chart, you'll notice that we are bumping up against the 200 day Moving Average which proved to be resistance back in April, and we quickly went lower.
The S&P daily chart is showing several dogi's in a row, indicating that trading ranges have been tight and the market has no real direction, even though it has been trending up.
Finally, take a look at the chart of the dollar. I've indicated the trendline cap at 89 and the ascending trendline floor right around 76.3. Despite QE2, the dollar could be poised to bounce off this trendline.
Should the dollar find support here on this trendline, it would likely mean lower equity prices again. While it would be a surprising conclusion that the dollar could rally in the face of more Quantitative Easing, remember that the Yen has rallied for 10 years against the dollar in the face of massive QE in Japan.
A stronger dollar right now indicative not of true dollar strength (investment fund flows) but of deflation (demand for money increases).
While this is S&P 500 negative, I do not believe that over the intermediate term it is Gold negative. Gold is only correlated to the dollar slightly less than 0.5, meaning that it moves with the dollar only 50% of the time. This year's earlier move in Gold and the dollar simultaneously during the Euro-blowup in May demonstrated that.
As the demand for real money continues to accelerate, Gold will be less and less affected by the $USD. Gold and the dollar can go up together, and likely will, until such a time as the dollar "breaks".
One could make a strong case here for short ES ($SPX), long GC ($GOLD); personally though I am not repositioning myself until after the Fed meeting and elections.
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
One winner, Few losers
Stopped out of Agrium (AGU) for ~ 5% loss.
Bought MolyCorp (MCP) yesterday @ $30.50 (NS). That's already up 10%.
Bought Conoco (COP) yesterday @ $61.06 (NS).
Added to Yamana (AUY) yesterday @ $11.17 (NS). Cost average now up to $10.60
Bought MolyCorp (MCP) yesterday @ $30.50 (NS). That's already up 10%.
Bought Conoco (COP) yesterday @ $61.06 (NS).
Added to Yamana (AUY) yesterday @ $11.17 (NS). Cost average now up to $10.60
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)