It's the last day before the 3-day Easter break and how nice would it look to be able to say we have had 5 straight weeks of gains.
That being said I am still holding SRS, FAZ and TYP.
So if the market goes up Thursday, I will say "I told you so"
If the market goes down Thursday, I will make money.
Win - Win! :)
Seriously though, what would scare me from the short side is if Thursday is so bullish that we take out $9.70 on the XLF and 845 on the S&P. (the highs from a few days ago)
The funny thing about this rally is even though it still SEEMS LIKE it is going full steam I sold my 401K 2 full weeks ago at 833 and even with all this "rally" we are currently trading at 825. The "real" portion of this rally all took place in the first few days.
Thursday could blow this out of the water though as I expect a gap up of some sort, the question is "will it hold?"
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I read an article this morning on restaurants. Restaurants grew 50%+ from 1990, but the US population only grew 23%. I suspect that a substantial contraction will occur -- maybe we won't get all the way back to that 23%, but I suspect that the number of restaurants will have to contract 20% or more. What does that mean for commercial real estate? Curtains!!
ReplyDelete(and hence there is a fundamental thesis for SRS. Maybe I will just buy puts on the real estate instrument instead of the "ultrashort" SRS).
ReplyDelete