Futures data often belies ... well, the future.
Let's take a look at the commitment of traders. Unlike most markets, futures markets are truly zero sum games, at least from a paper perspective. Thus, you can accurately guage who is long or short (big brokerages, producers, retail investors) and by how much by using this report.
The hyperlink is: http://www.futuresemail.com/cot/cotp1.htm
Notables:
retail investors and brokerages are long crude oil, and producers are short (Normal)
retail investors and PRODUCERS are long natural gas, brokerages are short (Abnormal)
retail investors are massively short the S&P, but brokerages are long
retail investors are short all duration goverment bonds
While this report isn't conclusive in and of itself, it does tell me a few things:
1) The street and the average investor believe oil is going higher
2) The average investor and nat gas producers believe nat gas is undervaled
3) The smart money is long the s&p, and the "dumb" money is short
4) The investing public wants nothing to do with treasuries
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I have looked at that report for many months and have seen small specs short and brokerages long the S&P pretty much every week for the last 2 years. I think that report may be good for commdities but not good for figuring anything out about the S&P.
ReplyDeleteTrimtabs just came out Thursday and said there had never been a time where insider selling was greater but retail buying was larger.
NYSE short interest is down for 6 straight weeks and really has been crashing.