Sunday, February 20, 2011

Shine Shine on me Silver

I've heard all the talk that "Silver is in a bubble". I've also heard all of the J.P. Morgan silver short conspiracy theories. The reality is, Silver is in backwardation, and that backwardation is growing steeper every day. This is a classic supply/demand story in the short term, and ultra-bullish for price. Originally I had pegged $35 as my target for $SILVER this year -- I think we may have to up that to $40. Will $SILVER come back to life after that? Probably, but I wouldn't be shorting it here. Try to find a 100oz or 1000oz bar for delivery -- let me know how that works out for you.

To quickly address the J.P. Morgan Short issue -- If JPM is really short, they are probably short in the OTC market against some other big counterparty (producer, other bank). In fact, they may actually be LONG in COMEX as a hedge to their OTC short position.

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