Things I "should" do today

1) I should be getting out of my GDX trade today (breaking 200day MA)
2) I should be getting long on the market again (financials breaking out PM)

The contrarian in me wonders if this is a big fat nasty trap.

I think the market may be up Thursday, but I am short....

It's the last day before the 3-day Easter break and how nice would it look to be able to say we have had 5 straight weeks of gains.

That being said I am still holding SRS, FAZ and TYP.

So if the market goes up Thursday, I will say "I told you so"

If the market goes down Thursday, I will make money.

Win - Win! :)

Seriously though, what would scare me from the short side is if Thursday is so bullish that we take out $9.70 on the XLF and 845 on the S&P. (the highs from a few days ago)

The funny thing about this rally is even though it still SEEMS LIKE it is going full steam I sold my 401K 2 full weeks ago at 833 and even with all this "rally" we are currently trading at 825. The "real" portion of this rally all took place in the first few days.

Thursday could blow this out of the water though as I expect a gap up of some sort, the question is "will it hold?"

Adding Tech to my list of shorts.... Bought TYP at $34.58

Picked up a decent sized block of TYP (Triple short Technology) at $34.58

1600 on the Nasdaq is a brick wall and a lot of the momo's are up a huge amount today.

If 1600 falls I have an easy exit point without too much pain.

PARABOLIC

It's not often I skip for joy, but the move in VMW has simply been parabolic. As you can see, this move today has busted its 200 day MA, as well.

Very bullish, but the move is not sustainable at this rate of change. I am taking a full lot off (100) and writing options on the rest (35 strike).

Oil Markets

The Oil markets are always perplexing. I've long been an oil bull, and remain so even after the bubble burst. Price action again, like last year, defies supply/demand logic. As RVASpeculator would point out, this is indicative more of currency devaluation than fundamental production or demand issues.

Today, more builds in oil and gas stocks. And DXO was down to 2.83, and now it is positive and at 2.99. A simple trade that has worked for the past few weeks is to buy pre-EIA stocks release at 10:20 on Wed and sell on Fri of that week. I'm sure it won't continue forever, but something I am taking note of.

Bought back GDX calls @ 1.4

Made a quick 22% profit. I am now back, fully unhedged on GDX. Gold looks to bounce here and the market looks like it wants to roll over further, which should drive gold and GDX up.

Unloaded DXO premarket

at 3.05. I'll buy it back at the 2.7 level again, once we get back there.

Still long term bullish on oil, but getting out of the "trade" that is DXO in my major account (still have a small position on my IRA). Still long OIH, XLE, SU, LINE and many other energy names.