Gold looks toppy

Gold (GLD) looks toppy here. We've tested $1250 3 times now and failed. There are no triple tops -- so Gold will eventually surmount this challenge. But there may be a pullback to the upper $1100s in the meantime.

I'd use this opportunity to write near-month (June) covered calls on any gold miner positions (GDXJ, GDX, GG) and to accumulate phyiscal Gold (PHYS).

I like the $31 June calls on GDXJ, the $55 June calls on GDX, and the $49 June calls on GG.

More action

Wrote four June 42 GDX (Gold miner ETF) puts at $1.2 a piece.

Sold a single lot of GDX to make room in margin.

Added another lot of UNG at $13.89.

Added another 200 of AUY at $11.20.

Long (live) commodities

The dollar has broken. As I indicated before, that means commodities are off to the races.
Backup the trucks boys. Gold, Silver, Oil. All the good stuff. Why limit yourself to the physical commodities? The stocks are going bananas too.

Things I "should" do today

1) I should be getting out of my GDX trade today (breaking 200day MA)
2) I should be getting long on the market again (financials breaking out PM)

The contrarian in me wonders if this is a big fat nasty trap.

Bought back GDX calls @ 1.4

Made a quick 22% profit. I am now back, fully unhedged on GDX. Gold looks to bounce here and the market looks like it wants to roll over further, which should drive gold and GDX up.

Amazing Day

3 hours to the close, and my accounts are "breaking out", owed mostly too my mega-long energy positions. Even with OIH being partially covered up and GDX being down big today, my trading account is up well over 10% today, and the rest of my accounts are all solidly in the green!

I don't want to jinx it...

More option writing

Wrote GDX covered calls, April 41s at $0.75. If they want to take it at 41 from me that will be an 11% profit in three weeks.

Into the GDX fire

Bought 200 GDX at 37.52. No stop, yet. Will buy more on a pullback, and then set my stop.

Another look at GDX?

I'm not bullish yet, but man if we can close near the moving averages...and when the 50 crosses the 200..we could be off to the races. I moved my buy up to 34 on this one, and my stop will be 29.

Finally out of my gold related names...

I held these positions since November of 2008 so it was hard to let them go...

I sold calls in February against AUY, GDX and MFN. AUY and GDX were my 2nd and 3rd largest positions.

All of these just got called away, but lucky for me I made money on most of the calls.
GDX and AUY settled right near the strike price I sold at.

GDX called away @ 37 + $2 for the calls I sold= out at 39 (cost was 21.8)

AUY called away @ 9 + $0.85 for the calls I sold = out at 9.85 (cost was 4.32)

MFN called away @ 5 + $0.70 for the calls I sold = out at 5.70 (cost was 3.52)*

*I should NOT have sold calls against this one as it closed at $8 a share.

I also sold calls against GDX, AUY and SLW in February and all of those went out just about worthless and I am not figuring that into the gains for these stocks because I am lazy. Even though selling calls cost me big on MFN it still has been a very profitable tool for me since I recently started doing it. Currently the only calls I have outstanding are the ones I sold on Friday against SLW.

I now have no margin and a sizable portion of cash on the sidelines. I will be looking for more opportunities tonight and into next week. I’m thinking this bear market rally has some more gas in it and will probably be jumping back on some high beta plays early.

Tonight I have actually been looking at some solar stocks. (gasp!) I know it’s a busted bubble and a lot of the companies are scams but it still could make some money if oil keeps going up, especially since they are all off about 90% and sitting near their 52 week lows. Thoughts?

My thoughts on GDX....(gold miners)

When you don't do the "Tim Knight 100 year chart method" the trend is your friend.

Here is the one year chart. I started buying below $20 and I see no reason to sell. 50 day crossed above the 100 day and is pushing all the way up against the 200 day. 100 day MA just turned up for the first time.

Tested the trendline perfectly and had a hard bounce. Exactly the bullish chart action you like to see.

I am a goldbug, but...

...this chart looks horrible for the miners. GDX needs to close above 34 (~ the 50/200 day MAs) and then 38 before we are out of the woods on these guys. Look at that strong descending trendline I've drawn!