As an owner in a large position of DXO, the double long crude ETN, I've been trying to figure out how high crude can go, and carry me to fat profits.
The basing pattern we've seen November - March has been impressive. I expect this to be the base of the next bull market in oil. Unlike the equity market, oil made its low in December, and has been climbing higher ever since.
40 is the absolute nominal floor for oil now. But again, how high can oil go, now how low.
We will bump up against nominal long term resistance at ~ $58. I think we get there tomorrow on a bullish inventory report, and I will take some profits on DXO (3.35-3.40 area), perhaps taking 50% off the table, just to buy it back on a pullback ($3).
Above $58, there's really good, solid resistance levels around each major round number -- $70, $80, $90, and $100. Interestingly, above $100, there's really nothing until the all time high from July. We won't be there again for a little while.
I guess my summer target for crude would be $70-75, which would put DXO around $7. It will be a choppy ride.
Gasoline inventories decreased 1.1 million barrels this week. SPR increased 2 million barrels. DXO unchanged at this instant.
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