Here is the chart for DXO.... This trendline has been intact since the middle of February when I bought my large chunk… there have been at least 5-6 tests of it along the way. Currently we are sitting right on the trendline. I thought about selling it in the $3’s but because all those calls I sold against other positions and the FAZ I bought were offsetting my DXO losses I decided to give it the benefit of the doubt and see what it did when/if it got to the trendline. I grown attached to DXO. :)
We are at the trendline now and it is “do or die” time for Oil and the DXO. I think it continues higher but if the market shows me otherwise I will book my profits. I did not add more as I am not 100% sure which way this one will go.
As far as the overall market goes as you can see from my trades I have been getting smaller and smaller as time has gone on. I went from almost being 100% margined when I was mega-long the gold and silver miners AND a bunch of market longs (20+ positions) to having no margin and a big pile of cash currently (5 positions and 3 are covered). I was very bullish on the stock market but sold my 401K at 832 as posted here. I was bullish on the financials but they rallied from $5.8 to $9.5 in just a few weeks.
So keeping in mind that I am not invested heavily in this forecast, what I see is:
A pullback in the short run (day to few days) followed by a bit more of rally into the intermediate term. Today was the end of the quarter which is always positive because of window dressing and tape painting. The first of the month has been a negative market day for countless straight months so April 1st should be red, but calling what happens tomorrow is a fools game. Anyway this rally in the intermediate term could take us only to 850 but it is possible that it runs all the way to 900 and beyond.
Either way I do not see a new bull market at this point and I think the rally runs out of steam as soon as we get overbought and the confidence indicators are showing LOTS of bulls and we finish off the last of the stubborn bears out there. How high we go depends on a combination of how stubborn the bears are and how dumb the bulls are! I’m not riding the upside but I am not shorting here either….
When you don’t have a big opinion on the overall market direction it is a traders market and you need to stay small, try to pick short-term winners and take profits quickly. This is exactly what I am doing along with not being a very active trader in this whipsaw consolidation days.
We are at the trendline now and it is “do or die” time for Oil and the DXO. I think it continues higher but if the market shows me otherwise I will book my profits. I did not add more as I am not 100% sure which way this one will go.
As far as the overall market goes as you can see from my trades I have been getting smaller and smaller as time has gone on. I went from almost being 100% margined when I was mega-long the gold and silver miners AND a bunch of market longs (20+ positions) to having no margin and a big pile of cash currently (5 positions and 3 are covered). I was very bullish on the stock market but sold my 401K at 832 as posted here. I was bullish on the financials but they rallied from $5.8 to $9.5 in just a few weeks.
So keeping in mind that I am not invested heavily in this forecast, what I see is:
A pullback in the short run (day to few days) followed by a bit more of rally into the intermediate term. Today was the end of the quarter which is always positive because of window dressing and tape painting. The first of the month has been a negative market day for countless straight months so April 1st should be red, but calling what happens tomorrow is a fools game. Anyway this rally in the intermediate term could take us only to 850 but it is possible that it runs all the way to 900 and beyond.
Either way I do not see a new bull market at this point and I think the rally runs out of steam as soon as we get overbought and the confidence indicators are showing LOTS of bulls and we finish off the last of the stubborn bears out there. How high we go depends on a combination of how stubborn the bears are and how dumb the bulls are! I’m not riding the upside but I am not shorting here either….
When you don’t have a big opinion on the overall market direction it is a traders market and you need to stay small, try to pick short-term winners and take profits quickly. This is exactly what I am doing along with not being a very active trader in this whipsaw consolidation days.
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