Following the script I laid out earlier in the week, I sold 1000 DXO at 3.04. I have set a stop for the remaining lot just below where I bought it, at 2.69. The dollar seems to be rallying rather strongly here and it may be troublesome for DXO and other commodities.
The script you laid out earlier in the week was:
ReplyDelete"I will take some profits on DXO (3.35-3.40 area), perhaps taking 50% off the table, just to buy it back on a pullback ($3)."
Still, probably not a bad idea to take some profits as it does look to be rolling over a bit. I am waiting for a close below $3 and then I dump it all.
Yea, you're right. We never got to 3.35 like I thought we would. I may be trading it wrong by selling half here (obviously I cost myself about $200 by not selling it at 3.2), but crude has run alot.
ReplyDeleteIt has run quite a bit and it was a good idea to take some off.
ReplyDeleteAll those calls I sold and the FAZ are making today not hurt like it should. Still DXO is dragging me slightly in the red today just because my DXO position is so large.
Still, commodity plays are really taking a beat down right now and I am lucky to be off less than 1K. Plus I would have felt bad if today was up 400 on the Dow considering I sold my 401K yesterday. :)
On GDX I would be watching $36. If that holds it's still good but below that point it is trouble IMHO
Just to get a quick catch up, what do the portfolio's look like that you have listed here. I'm unable to post directly to this blog, so I'm doing it through the comment of an existing entry. :)
ReplyDeleteMy opinion is that we aren't going down much more, but will likely hold steady in the markets overall until the Obama's plan begins to take shape. I think the initial fears of a "deep recession" have already spooked the majority of skittish investors. I think it will hold steady for the next few months, and if the job loss rates begin to go up by middle to end of this year, we might see a push upwards in prices.
I've been reading a lot and watching very closely to the overall market, while I don't have the expertise that you guys have, regarding different sectors, I see some really good bargains at the moment in some pretty premium stock. But one can never know exactly what will happen, and the fate of GM, and Chrysler is likely to be a government bailout due to government fears of creating job loss panic. However I think long terms, these types of companies will see stricter anti-monopoly cases to avoid another huge government bailout. So far, I must admit, Obama is inspiring hope in wealthy investors and providing those with excess income (upper middle class) with a sense of relief. Kudo's to Obama for his efforts, despite the future cost of it to the US tax payer. There will certainly be a concern in inflation, but I think the initial signs of deflation have been pretty much been stagnated by the efforts of the Obama administration.
Investors are watching and waiting for the right time to jump in, but they surely want some more data showing what they believe to be the "bottom" or "near bottom". Will still take time to get jobs back, but I think over the next few months, we will see the jobless rate of decline become smaller.
Employment and confidence in having a job, is the most important hurdle to overcome before getting the economy moving forward again.
I knew 5 or 6 years ago, that something of this magnitude had to take place in order to get people to think a little more about tomorrow and not just about today. The spending of US citizens was out of control, and the banks and financial institutions encouraged it with their easy credit. Lessons of this recession will surely cause a paradigm shift in the way financial institutions will 'approve' loans and credit.
OK... enough of my babbling... see my original request from above.
RVASpeculator and myself were both way early being short this market. He started shorting back in 2006, and myself in 2007. Clearly that was way too early, and we nearly were wiped out. Thank god for 2008/2009, and things finally came together. The problem with being smart is you have to wait for everyone else to figure out what you know.
ReplyDeleteIt's unclear to me what you mean by what the portfolios look like. The positions and purchase prices are listed on the right, as well as stop prices (NS indicates no stop, S @ $x.xx indicates a market stop order at that price). We don't have quantities, but in the blog we do post the quantities at the time of the trade.
All of the portfolios, with the exception of one of my IRA and trading accounts, are six figure accounts. The each have different slants -- some are long term investment portfolios, some are strictly trading, and some are a combination of both.
I'll be happy to answer any/all other questions any of you may have!