No More wallie chips

Sold Wal-Mart @ $59 ($50.2 cost basis) for a 26% total return with dividends.  Will buy it back at lower prices.

Sold half of my Intel position @ $25 ($20 cost basis) for a 28% total return with dividends.  Will buy it back at lower prices.

New positions

Bought 100 Corning (GLW) @ $15.50
Bought 100 Mosaic (MOS) @ $52

More buys

Adding to MSCI Japan (EWJ), $9.55, 2 lots
Wrote a couple Silver Wheaton (SLW) Weekly Puts (Expire Friday), $31 strike, $0.75, 2 lots
Wrote a couple Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) OCT Puts, $30 striek, $1.1, 2 lots

BTFD

Bought the dip in Yamana (AUY) @ $14, 500 shares.
Bought AK Steel (AKS) @ $7, 500 shares.

Selling Kraft & Bristol-Myers

Selling my Bristol Myers (BMY) @ $29.50 for a 24% total return.
Selling my Kraft (KFT) @ $34 for a 23% total return.

SNB goes nuclear

This past week's SNB intervention into the currency markets is unprecedented on many levels. The intervention saw the franc pegged to the euro @ 1.2, nearly 10% from its prior price.

For one, it may be the single greatest one day devaluation since FDR devalued the dollar against Gold by almost 70% ($20.67 to $35) with the Gold Reserve Act of 1934. And for another, it most certainly is another salvo in the ongoing currency wars.

It also likely blew up every leveraged retail currency player on the planet that was long SNB. Of course, this was the SNB's purpose -- to discourage speculative money flowing into CHF. But in fact the move into CHF was caused not really by speculators, but by real capital flight from the Euro Zone to the perceived safety of the Swiss.

Pegging the CHF to the EUR certainly will cause speculators to "move on" to other currencies (probably the Yen) but in reality the mass amounts of money flowing from EUR banks to CHF banks will have to be equalized by the SNB, and so instead of the balance of accounts being equalized by the exchange rate, it now will be equalized by the SNB's purchases of EUR assets.

The SNB is ultra conservative (usually) and this will limit them to only the most credit-worthy debt. I suspect the SNB was in the market Friday buying Bunds because of this, driving down German 10-year bunds to a record low 1.77%. This may have other interesting effects on Bund-peripheral spreads, actually artificially widening them because bunds are falling so much (although the peripheral yield expansion obviously is a larger driver).

I expect more pegs to emerge. In fact, a global repegging may now commence -- which is nothing more than unsterilized money printing, and should be long term anyway, nothing more than super bullish for gold.

Taking profits in miners

Sold 1000 AUY @ $16 -- 23% return (1500 left)
Sold 100 SLW @ $40 -- 9% return (100 left)

Gold is really overextended, but it might go even higher. Just in case, taking some profits...

Out of my (bond) shorts

I am swearing off shorting bonds. Closing my position in TBT for a 25% loss. It doesn't even fit with my theory of an interest rate peg -- in that scenario TBT would decline, too.

All in all, a sucker play that may ONE day pay off, but not yet.

Blood in the streets -- time to buy

Adding/opening positions in dividend stocks.

Bought Merck (MRK) @ $30, 4.87% yield, no stop.

Bought more International Paper (IP) @ $24, 4.23% yield, no stop.

Bought Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) @ $14.75, 6.4% yield, no stop.

Bought more Utilities ETF (XLU) @ $30, 4% yield, no stop.

Bought more ConocoPhillips (COP) @ $62, 4% yield, no stop.

I'm sniffing around Kimberly-Clark (KMB).

Have no fear

Gold is here. Bought 3000 AUY @ 12.95, 300 GDXJ @ $34

If all they can do to Gold is down a quarter of a percent, I laugh at them

Short Treasuries

Bought 200 UltraShort 20+yr Treasuries (TBT) @ $28.50, stop @ $25

Taking Profits Across the Board

Sold ALL Duke Energy (DUK) at $18.50 for a 22% total return including dividends
Sold my Short Yen (YCS) position for a 20% loss
Sold ALL Kraft (KFT) @ $34 for 32% total return with dividends
Sold 300 Yamana Gold (AUY) @ $13.7 for a 35% total return

Shooting stars

Nasty reversals this week in $SPX: portends more weakness


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Back into mosaic

Bought 200 mosaic (mos) @ $70.05 with a GTC stop at 66.85 with a near term target of $73 and a medium target of $80


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Jack be nimble, jack be quick

The miners are dramatically outperforming the metals today on a relative and absolute basis. I'm taking a shot here for at least a technical bounce (if not more). Bought 100 Silver Wheaton (SLW) @ $37, and 500 Yamana Gold (AUY) @ $12.05

Taking profits in Gold miners, rotating

Sold 1000 Yamana Gold (AUY) @ $12.70. 16% gain on this lot; still have 700 left. Bought 100 GoldCorp (GG) @ $54.80.

I don't really like the severe underperformance (relative and absolute) of miners vs. the metal. We've kissed my $1570 target for the metal from the IH&S pattern so I'm getting a bit cautious and getting smaller.

Definite rotation underway from $Silver to $Gold, at least in the momo trade.

Gap and Crap

Out of SLV @ $46.50. I'll take a ~6% gain in a few days. I didn't like the gap and crap.

No 'mo

Out of Phillip Morris (MO) @ $26. It provided an awesome total return of 49% (cost basis $18.25) including its fat dividend.

I'll buy this stock back in the low 20s, should it come back to me there.

The ride continues

Picked up 200 SLV @ $44.07. Selling at the first sign of weakness, but right now the parabola is in full effect.

Picked up 500 AUY @ $12.75, with a stop on these 500 @ $12.20

Liquidating Miners

$GOLD price action looks scary to me today, might be due for a nasty pullback. I unloaded 1200 AUY @ $12.96. Still have a 1000 left. Got a nice 20% gain in. Of course I will buy back with lower prices.

Wrote covered calls on all of the GDXJ I own, as well.

Out of horrible price action stocks

Silver Wheaton (SLW) and Patriot Coal (PCX) price action recently has been terrible, despite the parabolic rise in Silver and the moderate rise in met coal. Sold them for a 28.5% gain and 15% loss, respectively. SLW had reached my earlier $45 price target.

Buying the dip on Monsanto

Buying Monsanto (MON) @ $70 on the earnings-induced weakness. Writing April $70 Puts, too.

Going Japanese

Adding 100 more to my Japanese market position, MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) @ $10. Shorting the Yen via 100 of the UltraShort Yen ETF (YCS) @ $17 in the PM.

Dollar in steady decline

The federal reserve's goal of depreciating the dollar to reduce the true value of the federal government's debts is working. The US Dollar ($USD) has just closed at multi-year lows (75.61). The next level of support is @ 74 hit in November 2009. Thereafter, the all-time low around 72 hit in June 2008 is in sights. I expect that we will at least test both levels before the end of the Fed's QE2.

Meanwhile, we've begun to see bonds not behave as traditional safe havens -- by not rallying during crisis times and in some cases even selling off. While treasuries rallied a bit this week, overall yields are higher now than they were at the beginning of the year.

The Ultrashort 20year bond fund (TBT) is a great way to play this, with a stop slightly below $35. I also continue to love $GOLD and gold miners as with the currency being devalued, Gold will be a big beneficiary.

Losers

Sold SDS for an 8% loss and finally threw in the towel on PPL Corp (PPL) for a 20% loss (inclusive of dividends). Will rotate into more XLU.

New purchases

Adding to long term long positions, both good dividend yielders.

Added 200 shares of Intel (INTC) to the existing 100, @ $20.

Added 100 shares of Norfolk Southern (NSC) @ $66.

Looking to make a splash with MOS or MON if the rally continues tomorrow.

Japanese economy in freefall

And so is the Yen. Yen making all time highs against the dollar, now below 77. Amazing. This is the final throws before the epic yen collapse. The yen, very soon, will be the short of a lifetime. Just not yet.

Incidentally, all foreign exchange desks are going to BLOW UP over this, which could cause additional liquidations from margin.

Buy when there is blood in the streets

Bought 200 MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) shares @ $9.36. Bought 100 Potash (POT) shares @ $53.20. Bought 100 Freeport-Mcmoran (FCX) shares @ $48. Bought 300 Yamana Gold (AUY) @ $12.05

Inverse H&S on the Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ)

The Junior Gold Miners appear to have carved out a nice inverted Head & Shoulders pattern on the daily chart, with the neckline at roughly 40 and the head at 33. This would indicate a pattern completion around $47, or roughly 20% higher from today's close.

Shine Shine on me Silver

I've heard all the talk that "Silver is in a bubble". I've also heard all of the J.P. Morgan silver short conspiracy theories. The reality is, Silver is in backwardation, and that backwardation is growing steeper every day. This is a classic supply/demand story in the short term, and ultra-bullish for price. Originally I had pegged $35 as my target for $SILVER this year -- I think we may have to up that to $40. Will $SILVER come back to life after that? Probably, but I wouldn't be shorting it here. Try to find a 100oz or 1000oz bar for delivery -- let me know how that works out for you.

To quickly address the J.P. Morgan Short issue -- If JPM is really short, they are probably short in the OTC market against some other big counterparty (producer, other bank). In fact, they may actually be LONG in COMEX as a hedge to their OTC short position.

Taking another look at Intel

Although highlighted favorably in Barron's over the weekend, Intel (INTC) has been dead money for 10 years. I own it already because it is a steady dividend payer (3.3%) with growth in revenues of about 25% over the past 10 years, and it sells for a 10.5 P/E.

To accumulate more of the stock, it would take a compelling fundamental or technical reason. One appeared today -- what seems to be an inverse H&S with a neckline @ $22 and the head at $17.5. This would put the target price close to $27.

To see the INTC Stock Chart with the inverse H&S, Click here

If we see a breakout above $23, it might be time to load up the truck.

Lightening up my spec commodity longs

Sold Monsanto (MON) @ $73 ($54.59 cost basis) for 33.7% gain
Sold Mosaic (MOS) @ $85 ($73.5 cost basis) for 15.6% gain
Sold Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH) @ $164 ($144 cost basis) for a 13.8% gain

Back in Wheaton

Silver Wheaton that is. $34.50 no stop. The backwardation in silver suggests significant price appreciation is ahead for the metal itself and I'm slapping a $45 price target on SLW for the next 6 months.


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Out of Exxon

Sold ExxonMobil @ $83 (purchased @ $67), 26% total return with dividends.

Will replace with another oily major (Chevron, Conoco?) on more of a pullback.

Coal in my sock

Picked up a lot of arch coal (aci) for $34.1 (no stop)


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New Positions, out of 1

Bought Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH) @ $144 (NS)
Bought TX Municipal Gas Bonds, @ 102.702 with 5.25% due 2017

Sold Frontier Telecom (FTR) @ 9.2, cost basis 7.6, 24% total return with dividends

Needing a want

In this world there are needs and wants. The needs come long before the wants.


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Commodity Stocks Going Higher

Softs, Coal, Oil -- they're all going up. Time to load the truck up.

Bought Petrobras (PBR) @ $37.39 (NS)
Bought Mosaic (MOS) @ $73.50 (NS)
Bought MolyCorp (MCP) @ $55 (NS)

Right now I'm holding tight on Gold. Waiting for the follow through before buying more.

The great off balance sheet SIV: The Fed

Today the Fed announced that is rebating the Treasury approximately $78B it made from interest on the investments it owns on behalf of the "American People".

FY2010 interest payments by the treasury were $410B. That means the Fed not only has the largest custodial holdings of treasuries in the world (~$1T) thereby providing much needed demand in the treasury market, it also materially reduces the interest payments of the United States government by the tune of 19%.

As the Fed continues to expand its balance sheet, expect interest rebates to soar above $100B per annum and likely reduce interest payments the Treasury has to make by over 25%.