Out of Exxon

Sold ExxonMobil @ $83 (purchased @ $67), 26% total return with dividends.

Will replace with another oily major (Chevron, Conoco?) on more of a pullback.

"Low Risk" Intermediate Term Trading Ideas

P/E Compression (and dividend divergence) Trade -- Short NASDAQ (QQQ) / Long Dow Jones Industrials (DIA) [Equal Dollar]

Thesis: In a mini-deflationary event, dividend, low P/E stocks should outperform high P/E, low dividend stocks

Apple Mobile Phone Wars Trade -- Long Apple (AAPL) / Short Research in Motion (RIMM) [Equal Dollar]

Thesis: Apple's market share of the mobile phone market is only 5%. RIMM has not released a competitive phone in years -- old technology.

Ag Boom Trade -- Long Mosaic (MOS) / Short Whole Foods (WFMI) [Equal Dollar]

Thesis: Food input costs will continue to increase helping Mosaic's demand, pressuring margins of grocery chains like Whole Foods.

Exxon underperform Trade -- Long Suncor (SU) / Short ExxonMobil (XOM) [Equal Dollar]

Thesis: Exxon continues to barely replace reserves on non-acquisition basis. The only thing propping up the stock is it's cash flow and share buybacks. Puchase of XTO energy will pay dividends in the long run but I expect Exxon to underperform more highly levered players like Suncor.

More position updates

Wow, I've been slack.

Bought DD @ $41 and $37, cost basis then $39.
Bought XOM for $67.
Bought KO for $54.

New positions

New positions in ExxonMobil (XOM) @ 67.60, Dupont (DD) @ 37.50, and Southwest Airlines (LUV) 2016 4.25% bonds

Getting more long oil

Covered my Exxon naked put for a 75% gain, bought BP Amoco (BP) outright at $54 and $56.

Covered Puts, Wrote More

Covered my coke puts for a 75% profit. Wrote Jan $60 Exxon Puts for $1.1 (XOMML). Exxon would have to decline 15% to a new 3 year low below $59 for me lose money on this one.

Wrote MCDWK put, McDonalds Nov 55 Put for $1.4.
Wrote JNJVM put, In-the-money Johnson&Johnson Oct 65 Put for $4. I want to own Johnson & Johnson here.