Showing posts with label AAPL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AAPL. Show all posts

Saturday, August 28, 2010

"Low Risk" Intermediate Term Trading Ideas

P/E Compression (and dividend divergence) Trade -- Short NASDAQ (QQQ) / Long Dow Jones Industrials (DIA) [Equal Dollar]

Thesis: In a mini-deflationary event, dividend, low P/E stocks should outperform high P/E, low dividend stocks

Apple Mobile Phone Wars Trade -- Long Apple (AAPL) / Short Research in Motion (RIMM) [Equal Dollar]

Thesis: Apple's market share of the mobile phone market is only 5%. RIMM has not released a competitive phone in years -- old technology.

Ag Boom Trade -- Long Mosaic (MOS) / Short Whole Foods (WFMI) [Equal Dollar]

Thesis: Food input costs will continue to increase helping Mosaic's demand, pressuring margins of grocery chains like Whole Foods.

Exxon underperform Trade -- Long Suncor (SU) / Short ExxonMobil (XOM) [Equal Dollar]

Thesis: Exxon continues to barely replace reserves on non-acquisition basis. The only thing propping up the stock is it's cash flow and share buybacks. Puchase of XTO energy will pay dividends in the long run but I expect Exxon to underperform more highly levered players like Suncor.

Saturday, May 8, 2010

Volatility high = Put premiums very high

If you are willing to own some big cap names here at 40% lower prices and still collect an option premium, there are some interesting opportunities out there.

Write an AAPL June $150 put for $0.80. AAPL is currently trading around $235 (36.2% stock price decline required to lose money on option). If you believe AAPL will not trade down to $150 by June 18th then this is a money maker.

Write a GOOG May $390 put for $1.00. GOOG is currently trading around $493 (20.8% stock price decline required to lose money on option). If you believe GOOG will not trade down to $390 by May 21st then this is a money maker.

Write a BRK.B May $70 put for $1.00. BRK.B is currently trading at $74 (7% stock price decline required to lose money on option). If you believe BRK.B will not trade down to $70 by May 21st then this is a money maker.

Write a BP June $42.50 put for $0.83. BP is currently trading at $49 (13.2% stock price decline required to lose money on option). If you believe BP will not trade down to $42.50 by June 18th then this is a money maker.