"Low Risk" Intermediate Term Trading Ideas

P/E Compression (and dividend divergence) Trade -- Short NASDAQ (QQQ) / Long Dow Jones Industrials (DIA) [Equal Dollar]

Thesis: In a mini-deflationary event, dividend, low P/E stocks should outperform high P/E, low dividend stocks

Apple Mobile Phone Wars Trade -- Long Apple (AAPL) / Short Research in Motion (RIMM) [Equal Dollar]

Thesis: Apple's market share of the mobile phone market is only 5%. RIMM has not released a competitive phone in years -- old technology.

Ag Boom Trade -- Long Mosaic (MOS) / Short Whole Foods (WFMI) [Equal Dollar]

Thesis: Food input costs will continue to increase helping Mosaic's demand, pressuring margins of grocery chains like Whole Foods.

Exxon underperform Trade -- Long Suncor (SU) / Short ExxonMobil (XOM) [Equal Dollar]

Thesis: Exxon continues to barely replace reserves on non-acquisition basis. The only thing propping up the stock is it's cash flow and share buybacks. Puchase of XTO energy will pay dividends in the long run but I expect Exxon to underperform more highly levered players like Suncor.

Out of cyclical and high beta names

Sold remainder of VMW, UNP and SU positions for -45% ($29), +12% ($6), and -13% ($5) respectively.

I am Worried about another deflationary bout this fall, and these positions would fall much more rapidly than other, less sensitive names.

Long (live) commodities

The dollar has broken. As I indicated before, that means commodities are off to the races.
Backup the trucks boys. Gold, Silver, Oil. All the good stuff. Why limit yourself to the physical commodities? The stocks are going bananas too.